Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 55.55%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 20.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.64%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
Result | ||
Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
55.55% ( -0.45) | 24.24% ( 0.26) | 20.21% ( 0.18) |
Both teams to score 48.3% ( -0.5) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.56% ( -0.81) | 52.44% ( 0.8) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.88% ( -0.7) | 74.12% ( 0.69) |
Athletic Bilbao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.24% ( -0.47) | 18.76% ( 0.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.84% ( -0.8) | 50.16% ( 0.79) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.46% ( -0.27) | 40.54% ( 0.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.86% ( -0.24) | 77.14% ( 0.24) |
Score Analysis |
Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
1-0 @ 12.72% ( 0.21) 2-0 @ 10.64% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 5.94% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 5.36% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 2.49% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.24% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.09% Total : 55.53% | 1-1 @ 11.49% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 4.34% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.8% Total : 24.24% | 0-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.1% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.25% Total : 20.21% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 37 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 94 |
2 | Barcelona | 37 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 77 | 43 | 34 | 82 |
3 | GironaGirona | 37 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 78 | 46 | 32 | 78 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 65 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 56 |
8 | Villarreal | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 52 |
9 | Valencia | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 48 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 45 |
11 | Osasuna | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 44 |
12 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 43 |
13 | Sevilla | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 41 |
14 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 40 |
15 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 39 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 38 |
17 | Mallorca | 37 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 37 |
R | CadizCadiz | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 33 |
R | Granada | 37 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 72 | -34 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 37 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 18 |
> La Liga Full Table |