EFL Cup

EFL Cup | Quarter-Finals

Dec 19, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Vale Park

Port Vale
0 - 3
Middlesbrough

Balmer (50'), Loft (60'), Iacovitti (80')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Howson (11'), Rogers (23'), Crooks (53')
Clarke (4'), Rogers (10')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Port Vale and Middlesbrough, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Port Vale

All competitions

EFL Cup

Last Game: Port Vale 3-2 Wigan
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Middlesbrough

All competitions

EFL Cup

Last Game: Swansea 1-2 Middlesbrough
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Port Vale 1-3 Middlesbrough

For the first time in their cup run, Port Vale will go up against a team from a higher division, and we think that the gulf in quality could help Middlesbrough claim a relatively comfortable victory to seal their place the semi-finals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.79%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.34%) and 0-2 (6.35%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 2-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.

Result
Port Vale	Draw	Middlesbrough
34.52% ( 0.08)	24.69% ( -0)	40.79% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 58.55% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.51% (

0.03)

44.49% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.14% (

0.03)

66.86% (

-0.03)

Port Vale Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.89% (

0.06)

25.11% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.19% (

0.09)

59.81% (

-0.09)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.19% (

-0.03)

21.81% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.97% (

-0.04)

55.03% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Port Vale 34.52%

Middlesbrough 40.79%

Draw 24.68%

Port Vale	Draw	Middlesbrough
2-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.57% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.23% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.67% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.79% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.27% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 2.65% Total : 34.52%	1-1 @ 11.52% 2-2 @ 6.06% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.48% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.42% ( 0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.68%	1-2 @ 8.77% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 6.35% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 4.45% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.08% 1-4 @ 1.7% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.23% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0) Other @ 2.49% Total : 40.79%