Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 11

Oct 22, 2022 at 5pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
4 - 1
Monza

Diaz (16', 41'), Origi (65'), Leao (84')
Origi (31')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Ranocchia (70')
Bondo (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Monza, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Hellas Verona 1-2 AC Milan
Sunday, October 16 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Monza

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Udinese 2-3 Monza
Wednesday, October 19 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

Goals
for

Top scorers

Despite signing some experienced heads in the summer, the occasion could prove too much for Monza to handle as they tackle their mighty neighbours. With Milan recovering injured players and having enjoyed a free midweek, expect them to win and stay on Napoli's coat-tails. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 62.47%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Monza had a probability of 16.02%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.52%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.22%), while for a Monza win it was 0-1 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Monza
62.47% ( -0.18)	21.5% ( 0.02)	16.02% ( 0.15)

Both teams to score 48.96% (

0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.41% (

0.19)

47.59% (

-0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.21% (

0.17)

69.79% (

-0.18)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.35% (

14.65% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.21% (

0.01)

42.79% (

-0.02)

Monza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.36% (

0.31)

42.64% (

-0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.02% (

0.27)

78.98% (

-0.27)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 62.46%

Monza 16.02%

Draw 21.5%

AC Milan	Draw	Monza
1-0 @ 11.99% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 11.52% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.38% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.02% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.68% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.29% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.16% ( 0) Other @ 2.42% Total : 62.46%	1-1 @ 10.22% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.25% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.85% Total : 21.5%	0-1 @ 5.33% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.64% Total : 16.02%