Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 31

Apr 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Gewiss Stadium

Atalanta
3 - 1
Roma

Pasalic (39'), Toloi (74'), Koopmeiners (84')
Piero Gasperini (27'), de Roon (30'), Luis Palomino (86'), Koopmeiners (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Pellegrini (83')
Solbakken (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Serie A clash between Atalanta BC and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Last Game: Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta
Monday, April 17 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Roma 4-1 Feyenoord
Thursday, April 20 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Roma's total of nine victories without conceding in 2023 is a record equalled only by city rivals Lazio and champions-elect Napoli. In short, Mourinho's men know how to get the job done. A combination of their resilience and Atalanta's goal woes should see the visitors return to the capital with maximum points, all but ending their hosts' hopes of Champions League qualification. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 49.17%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Roma had a probability of 25.18%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.18%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	Roma
49.17% ( -1.24)	25.65% ( 0.14)	25.18% ( 1.1)

Both teams to score 50.04% (

0.67)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.86% (

0.34)

53.13% (

-0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.29% (

0.29)

74.71% (

-0.29)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.37% (

-0.39)

21.63% (

0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.25% (

-0.6)

54.75% (

0.61)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.86% (

1.17)

36.14% (

-1.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.08% (

1.17)

72.92% (

-1.17)

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 49.16%

Roma 25.18%

Draw 25.65%

Atalanta BC	Draw	Roma
1-0 @ 11.96% ( -0.31) 2-1 @ 9.33% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.16% ( -0.35) 3-1 @ 4.76% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.24) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1.79% ( -0.11) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 2.32% Total : 49.16%	1-1 @ 12.18% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 7.82% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 4.75% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.91% Total : 25.65%	0-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 6.2% ( 0.23) 0-2 @ 4.05% ( 0.2) 1-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.14) 2-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.11) Other @ 1.89% Total : 25.18%