Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.23%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 13.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.35%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (4%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
13.13% ( 0.28) | 18.64% ( -0) | 68.23% ( -0.28) |
Both teams to score 51.03% ( 0.86) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.99% ( 0.71) | 41.01% ( -0.71) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.6% ( 0.72) | 63.4% ( -0.72) |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.34% ( 0.89) | 42.66% ( -0.89) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.99% ( 0.75) | 79.01% ( -0.75) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89% ( 0.13) | 11% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.72% ( 0.28) | 35.28% ( -0.28) |
Score Analysis |
Estoril Praia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 4% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.18% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 1.07% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.42% Total : 13.13% | 1-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.69% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 4.15% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.98% Total : 18.64% | 0-2 @ 11.43% ( -0.25) 0-1 @ 10.35% ( -0.29) 1-2 @ 9.74% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 8.41% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 7.17% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 4.64% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 3.95% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.1) 0-5 @ 2.05% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.75% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.68% ( 0.06) Other @ 4% Total : 68.22% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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